Recent survey results show a tightening race between Vice President Sara Duterte and former Vice President Leni Robredo for the 2028 Philippine presidential election, with Duterte maintaining a lead but by a slimmer margin.
A recent survey conducted by OCTA Research reveals that Vice President Sara Duterte’s lead over former Vice President Leni Robredo in a hypothetical 2028 Philippine presidential election matchup has narrowed to just seven percentage points, the smallest gap recorded this year. According to the third-quarter 2026 Tugon ng Masa survey, Duterte leads with 40% of voter support while Robredo has 33%, with 26% of respondents undecided or choosing neither candidate. The survey, which involved face-to-face interviews with 1,200 respondents aged 18 and above across the Philippines, was carried out from September 28 to October 4, 2026, and possesses a ±3% margin of error at a 95% confidence level.
The narrowing gap follows a trend as Duterte’s lead decreased from 11 points in the first quarter and nine points in the second quarter of 2026 to seven points currently. While Duterte’s share slightly decreased from 43% to 40%, Robredo’s support remained relatively steady, going from 34% to 33%. The proportion of undecided or non-committal voters has increased from 22% to 26%, indicating some voter realignment or indecision.
Geographically, Robredo leads in the National Capital Region (39% versus 32%) and Balance Luzon (49% versus 24%), whereas Duterte leads decisively in the Visayas (46% versus 27%) and overwhelmingly in Mindanao (71% versus 2%). Socioeconomic groups display varying preferences: Robredo leads among higher income classes (Class ABC) with 40% support compared to Duterte’s 32%, while Duterte leads among Class D (41% to 31%), and the two candidates are statistically tied in Class E with Robredo registering 42% and Duterte 41%.
OCTA Research notes that the growing number of uncommitted voters and slight declines in Duterte’s numbers may signal shifts that require further observation in subsequent surveys. These findings provide valuable insights into voter preferences leading up to the 2028 elections, highlighting a competitive political landscape ahead.
Sources referenced:
- https://www.gmanetwork.com/news/topstories/content/1008210/sara-duterte-s-lead-over-leni-robredo-narrows-to-7-points-in-2028-matchup-octa/story/
